Economist James Pomeroy predicts that the world’s population will halve by 2100 and fall to 4 billion people. A thesis contradicts the United Nations estimate of 10 billion humans by the end of this century.
How many of us will be on Earth by 2100? According to the United Nations’ highest estimates, we will be nearly 15 billion people by the beginning of the next century. About 10 billion in the medium scenario and 8 billion in the low scenario.
These findings are contradicted by findings from HSBC Global Research and economist James Pomeroy. According to him, a sharp drop in the birth rate and an increase in the death rate means that “world population will reach its maximum in 2043” approaching 8 billion people, before starting a decline in the number of births, finally reaching 4. billion humans by 2100.
“World Population May Peak in 2043”
“The decline in births worldwide is already incredibly significant,” HSBC Global Research experts note. If birth rates had remained unchanged globally since 2019, there would have been 40 million additional births in the period 2020-2022.
Infection plays a role in fertility decline. During this period, the birth rate decreased by 1%. “This means one less child per 1,000 is born today than in 2019,” the study explains. Out of 8 billion people, there are 8 million fewer children every year.
However, not all people of the world are in the same boat. “In Europe, if the situation does not change, the population will decrease by half by 2070”, experts warn. By 2100, the continent will have 400 million fewer people.
Why is population likely to decline?
The reasons for the declining birth rate are manifold. The study cites improvements in economic development, access to care and contraceptives in developing countries. Additionally, women’s participation in the labor market plays a role in the decline in births.
Dr., founder of Our World Data, quoted in the study as saying that increasing the length of education for girls between the ages of 0 and 6 could lead to a 40% to 80% reduction in birth rates. Max Roser said. In addition, rising real estate prices will curb the desire of young couples to start a family. The latter postpones the birth of children in order to save longer.
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