Drought in India: Wheat prices are high, stocks are very low … why your baguette is increasing

Wheat prices rose nearly 6% on Monday (May 16) after India announced a ban on exports amid fears that tensions in the world market, which were already high after Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, would escalate.

Wheat prices were already under pressure due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which broke its record in European markets on Monday after India’s embargo was announced. The latter, justified Current heat wave, Which is expected to reduce national production and is already raising prices in the local market, probably signaling the end of record export confidence from New Delhi, which could offset the expected fall in Ukrainian wheat supplies. At the same time, in France, as in the United States, many large areas of production have been affected by the drought, which compromises production forecasts.

“The situation in the international arena has been complicated by India’s decision to impose export restrictions,” acridel, a specialized consultancy, said in a statement. The price of wheat reached 438.25 euros per tonne, which will be a new recordInterviewed by Damien Vercombe, Inter-Cortage Broker, Le Figaro and AFP.

Global stocks are down

Rumors of a ban on Indian exports due to the continuous heat wave have been circulating in recent days, with many traders and analysts estimating that India’s wheat crop will fall below 100 million tonnes. The government had already reduced its harvest forecast to 105 million tonnes earlier this month.

For its part, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced last week Global stocks are expected to fall to a six-year low of 2022-2023.

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Towards an increase in bread prices?

Since India is on the bench, the implications for bread prices are already known in France. According to our colleagues France InformationThere are some French bakers Now set at 1.30 euros, they have increased the price of their baguette by 10%. According to INSEE, the price of a kilo of baguette bread was 3.64 euros in January 2022, 3.66 euros in March and 3.68 euros in April. According to the World Bank, wheat will cost $ 370 per tonne in 2024, 59% more than in 2020.

What are the possible alternatives? To overcome this export problem, France can bet on its own grain harvest.

Rising food prices could plunge 10 million people into poverty, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at the first round table at the G20 on Tuesday. BFM TV.

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